Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Prediction: GOP in 2014, Democrat WH in 2016

Consider today's US mid-term election results neutrally:

  • When one party controls both houses of Congress, that party will become giddy with power and over-reach.
  • When one party reaches minority status in both houses, that party resorts to tactics it previously condemned ("nuclear option").
  • It gets ugly when one party controls Congress, and another party controls the White House.

The most recent example is Bush 43 + Democrats, but that is only the latest example.

Typical results from this sort of situation:
  • An orgy of hearings.
  • A raft of long-delayed "red meat for the base" bills will be passed in short order.
  • Political theatre raised one level:  Congress will pass bills it knows the President will veto (and knows cannot achieve a veto override).
  • A 2-house minority party becomes the obstructionist Party Of No.
A party flush with power simply cannot resist over-reach.  Democrats and Republicans both have proven this true time and again.

As such, we must consider timing.  GOP won the mid-terms, giving them two years to over-reach before the 2016 general election.  Voters will be tired of the over-reach, and the pendulum will swing back.

Predicted result:  Democrats take the White House in 2016.

If the 2014 mid-term elections had been the 2016 election, we would be looking at a full sweep, with GOP in House, Senate and White House.

Losing could be the best thing Democrats did for themselves in 2014.

P.S. Secondary prediction:  ACA will not be repealed.  ACA repeal bill will be voted upon, but will not make it to the President's desk.